Summary of electricity supply situation in the first 8 months of 2020
In the first 8 months of 2020, the national power system has been operating in a safe, uninterrupted and stable manner, especially during holidays, new year festival, important economic, political, socio-cultural events, the electricity supply has been secured under the context that the Covid-19 pandemic have had a lot of complicated developments.
In the first 8 months of 2020, due to impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the national electricity demand grew at a rate lower than expected, the total electricity production output of the whole system reached 163.4 billion kWh, growing by 1.6% over the same period in 2019. Of which, power sales to industry – construction sector increased by only 0.72% over the same period in 2019; power sales to trade and service sector decreased by 11.75% compared to the same period in 2019. These two load components have been most affected since the Covid-19 pandemic occurred. However, power sales to consumption and management sector still increased by 6.54% over the same period in 2019, one of the main reasons for this increase was the prolonged scorching weather on a large scale.
Prediction of electricity supply situation in the last 4 months of 2020
Overall speaking, the electricity supply will be persistently secured for the remaining months of 2020.
In the last months of 2020, impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic will keep affecting electricity consumption of customers, especially industry – construction and trade – service load components, when the second Covid-19 outbreak came at the end of July 2020. It is predicted that power sales of the whole 2020 will be about 214.3 billion kWh, an increase of 2.16% compared to 2019.
Regarding the exploitation and operation of hydropower reservoirs: With the current situation of water inflow to hydropower reservoirs in the 2020 flood season, the water impoundment in reservoirs is facing many difficulties due to very poor water inflow, especially reservoirs in the Central Highlands and in the South. It is expected that by the end of 2020, the total generation output of hydropower will reach 69.12 billion kWh, 7.0 billion kWh lower than the 2020 plan.
Preliminary forecast of electricity supply in 2021
Electricity supply in 2021 will be basically secured if there are no extreme, unusual developments of hydrological conditions and of implementation schedule of new power generation projects.
For the year 2021, the economic situations in the world in general and in the country in particular are forecasted to gradually recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that Vietnam's economic growth will recover and is expected to achieve 7% by 2021 when pandemic control measures are lifted, together with the ease of fiscal and monetary policies, gradually recovering macroeconomic solid foundations and demand for goods from outside markets. EVN forecasts that the power consumption demand will grow and recover with the growth rate of about 8-10% / year.
To prepare for the power supply in 2021, EVN projects the power load demand in 2021 according to 2 scenarios:
+ Base scenario: The demand for power sales in 2021 will be 235.2 billion kWh, the power generation output of the whole system will be 267.9 billion kWh accordingly.
+ High scenario (with a post Covid-19 robust economic recovery scenario): The power sales in 2021 will be 236.97 billion kWh, the power generation output of the whole system will be 269.9 billion kWh accordingly (2 billion kWh higher than the base scenario).
EVN will constantly update changes in power loads, power grids and power generation sources to provide information on the electricity supply situation of the national power system./.
CONTACT INFORMATION:
Communications Department - Vietnam Electricity;
Email: bantt@evn.com.vn
Phone: 024.66946405 / 66946413; Fax: 024.66946402
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