Reporter: Vietnam has adjusted Power Plan VII and Power Master Plan VII, but many targets have not been finalized. How do you rate this situation?
Mr. Thai Phung Ne: Looking back at the 2016-2020 period, we can see that many power projects have been delayed, mainly coal-fired power plants, causing a shortage of about 7,000MW of power. There are about 11 projects, mainly coal-fired power plants, that cannot be implemented such as Song Hau, Long Phu in the Mekong Delta and some other projects in the North. There are many reasons leading to this situation, but in my opinion, the main reason are caused by monitoring, checking and urging, finding solutions to quickly remove and overcome difficulties and obstacles implied by the mechanism.
Reporter: What lessons have we learned from the development of renewable energy, especially solar power with a capacity of up to 17,000MW sir?
Mr. Thai Phung Ne: In just a few years, private investors have built acapacity of 17,000MW, 7 times more than Son La Power Plant. To a certain extent, these projects have made up for the shortfall of about 7,000MW of coal-fired power sources behind the schedule. This power source also ensures the Southern power system in April, May and the Northern power system in July-August, which is the peak period of the hot season. This is also an additional source in the context that coal-fired power plants have had to increase the number of generation hours to 7,000 hours/year (by 2020).
Labour Hero Thai Phung Ne
Reporter: The backup factor of the power system has reached 34%, much higher than the 16% and 4.6% expected at 2030 and 2045 respectively. Is it due to uncontrolled investment that led to an oversupply of power and had to cut off both RE and other traditional power sources in the past time?
Mr. Thai Phung Ne: Calculating the provision up to 2045 is too long, I can’t guess how reasonable the provision rate to year 2045 is. As for the provision at 16% in 2030, it must be considered very carefully. My view is that the backup ratio shall be 15-20%.
Currently, the backup rate went up to 34% in 2020 was due to the unusual increase in capacity of solar power up to 17,000 MW. The backup rate of 15-20% means that it is necessary to calculate the construction of works and projects from other energy sources to ensure a balance with renewable energy sources, so as to maintain the stability of the system and avoid grid disintegration.
By 2030, Vietnam needs a capacity of 130,000MW, corresponding to a backup of 25,000MW. Therefore, it is necessary to rapidly increase the amount of pumped-storage hydropower: currently there are 9 pumped-storage hydropower projects that have not been implemented and 2 projects, Bac Ai and Dong Phu Yen, are under construction. We need to speed up the construction, put it into operation soon, it can’t be let in slow progress. We promote the power sources from renewable energy, but this power source has implied uncertainties, so it is necessary to build more LNG and coal-fired power plants to ensure balance and be ready to compensate for the power system. Along with that, it is necessary to calculate and regulate hydropower plants reasonably, ensuring power generation in peak periods in the North and the South.
Besides, it is necessary to force RE investors to invest in electricity storage centers, which are still very expensive today. If there is no stable backup source, the electricity industry cannot cope with the abnormality of RE. It is unacceptable if there is a risk of grid disintegration.
Reporter: What are your comments on the power sources in the Draft Power Plan VIII?
Mr. Thai Phung Ne: The previous plans were divided into 3 regions, North - Central - South. Currently there are 6 regions, in which the Central region is divided into more detailed regions. The future power source will mainly be located in the Central region, close to the structure of the power system.
Vietnam is endowed with a long coastline in the Central region, the development of coal power and LNG requires input fuel, so the focus will be made on the Central region with projects such as Vinh Tan, Vung Ang, Dung Quat, Chan May, Quang Trach, etc. Previously, the State assigned the related units to build seaports, but the investors did not dare to implement it themselves, later began to proactively import fuel for electricity generation.
In summary, the role and geographical position of the Central region in the development of the electricity industry in the coming time is very important. Therefore, it is necessary to consider power loads and additional projects to ensure stability for the power system.
Reporter: Investment capital for power development in the coming years needs about USD 12-13 billion/year. What do you think about that investment capital in the condition that the electricity industry shall arrange capital on its own, without a guarantee from the Government?
Mr. Thai Phung Ne: In the recent period, investment in the electricity industry needs over USD 6 billion /year. The most important issue here is the price of electricity. According to the Draft Electricity Master Plan VIII, the electricity price is estimated at 11-12 cents/kWh. I think, it now is the time to fully and seriously implement the Electricity Law: Implementing a perfect electricity market mechanism, not a faltering market.
In the past period, there were 3 forms of electricity price calculation: ladder electricity pricing, time-based electricity pricing and average electricity pricing. Now, it is necessary to conduct electricity purchase and sale in these 3 forms by "correct and sufficient calculation". It is important that investors and power workers do not suffer losses, thereby having capital for reinvestment and development.
Electricity price is calculated based on investment capital, adjustment of electricity price shall be promptly performed, businesses will not suffer losses. In addition, businesses must rise up to control the situation by themselves, gradually reducing the guarantee of the Government. Recently, EVN and EVNNPT have been approved by the World Bank to issue foreign currency debt thanks to their BB+ rating. In addition, the Government needs to build a specific mechanism for national key projects as in the previous period.
In addition, the private sector can do whatever they want, creating a mechanism for them to implement the projects; solar and wind power sources should be participated in by the private and foreign sectors, evenin the transmission sector and their implementation shall be just managed in compliance with the law. However, even if it attracts more resources from outside EVN, it is also determined that they cannot do it all, in the end EVN still shall take the main part.
PV: Thank you sir!