In a report presented to the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr. Tran Ky Phuc, Director of the Institute of Energy – the consulting unit in the process of preparing Power Plan VIII - said that as a basis taken for development of the main content of the Power Plan VIII, the consulting unit had reviewed and re-evaluated the implementation of the Plan period 2016 - 2020 related to the development of the load, the development of power sources and power grids to find out the causes as well as to learn from experience.
The review results showed that load implementation in the past period had been quite good, reaching 97.8%. Power generation construction reached 93.7% of the planned total installed capacity. However, the development structure was different. The implementation rate of thermal power generation only reached 57.6%, while that of renewable energy generation was higher than 205%. The completion rate of 500kV substations was 73%, that of 500kV lines was 88%, that of 220kV substations was 77%, and that of 220kV lines is 84%.
Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung delivering conclusion of the meeting. Photo source: VGP
Research results by the Institute of Energy showed that the power demand in Power Plan VIII would be lower than the forecasted results in revised Power Plan VII, about 3-4 billion kWh in 2020 and 9-10 billion kWh by 2030. The structure of power consumption by region would change significantly with a larger proportion in the North. Power demand in period 2021-2030 would still reach an expected annual increase of about 8%.
The Institute submitted 11 power generation development scenarios depending on different input conditions. Accordingly, the selected scenario was the one that would ensure renewable energy development goals according to the National Renewable Energy Development Strategy and Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW. Specifically, by 2030, renewable energy would account for about 32%, increasing up to 40.3% in 2045 and 43% in 2050.
In particular, with this option, the rate of coal-fired power would gradually decrease from the current 42% to about 36% by 2035 and about 31% by 2045. In period 2020-2030, there would be no more new coal-fired thermal power projects developed in addition to those already included in Power Plan VII.
At the meeting, Minister of MOIT Tran Tuan Anh emphasized that Power Plan VIII would need a more careful analysis on the new domestic and international contexts, situations, politics, trade, investment, integration, a careful calculation of their feasibility. Currently, the functional units of MOIT are actively working to finalize and submit the master plan to the Government in October 2020.
In his conclusion, Deputy Prime Minister Trinh Dinh Dung required that Power Plan VIII should be to directional, and should create a space to mobilize and promote resources from the society, should come up with plans and select optimal scenarios in total capacity of each stage, each period; there should be assessments and forecasts based on the trend of using clean energy and power saving technologies; consistent with the structure of economic sectors; determine a rational power structure to reduce system and infrastructure costs, and at the same time ensure environmental protection factors.
The up-coming direction would be to fully exploit renewable energy sources, but ensure safe operation and environmental protection; to develop gas-fired power generation and liquefied gas industries in a reasonable manner to make it less dependent on imported gas sources.
The Plan should arrange space for power development in regions, based on the potentials and conditions for socio-economic development in each region and locality. The Plan should develop a modern transmission system, ensuring safe, reliable and efficient operation; to promptly plan infrastructures, storage facilities and ports for LNG, coal and gas pipelines, etc.
Currently, the Government and the Prime Minister are directing MOIT to speed up the development of the above plans and submit them to the Prime Minister for approval, especially the National Power Development Plan shall be promptly approved right in 2020.