Demand on rise, production output in decrease
At the workshop “Potential of developing gas market in Vietnam”. Mr. Doan Hong Hai – Representative of Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that Vietnam currently had 7,200MW of power generated from gas. The development of gas-fired thermal power is considered to be very necessary, ensuring the diversity of primary fuel sources for power generation; strengthening national energy security.
Gas-fired thermal power comes up with advanced technology, high performance, environmental-friendly feature, which is very suitable to trend of sustainable development. In particular, gas-fired thermal power will promptly supplement the power source when renewable energy (RE) plants are unstable, or unable to generate power due to the weather. According to the revised Power Master Plan VII, by 2030, the total capacity of gas power plants will be about 19,000MW, corresponding to the use of 22 billion m3 of gas for power generation.
The demand on gas fuel for power generation is increasing, but the supply is increasingly exhausting. Mr. Phung Van Sy - Representative of Oil, Gas and Coal Department, Ministry of Industry and Trade, said that, from 2023, PVN’s gas supply capacity through PM3 – Ca Mau pipeline would be halved, rapidly decreasing from 2023 and by 2028 gas supply would be stopped. Notably, other gas fields are on alert currently. Bach Ho field – the key one of Vietnam Oil and Gas sector, after 32 years of mining, has currently entered a period of decline. Other oil and gas fields such as Te Giac Trang, Su Tu Den, Su Tu Vang, Rang Dong, etc., are also in the period of decline in output or high inundation, posing many risks during the mining process. Block 06.1 in Nam Con Son basin will also stop operating in May 2023, causing a shortage of gas in the Southeast region.
Phu My Electricity Center. Image taken by Unit
Dependence on the source of imported gas
According to calculations by the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority, Vietnam will need to import LNG to offset the shortage of gas output for power generation under the adjusted Power Master Plan VII. By 2030, nearly 50% of gas fuel for power generation will come from imported LNG.
The future development of Vietnam’s gas-fired thermal power generation is projected to be highly dependent on imported LNG. However, if the international LNG market witnesses large fluctuations in price, it will cause a significant impact on the cost of power generation in Vietnam. Additionally, Vietnam has not gained any experience in developing and operating LNG dock warehouse projects and a series of LNG power projects. There are also difficulties in seeking suitable locations, constructing dock warehouses for LGN storages.
Experts from the Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority claim that it is necessary to come up with the Government’s operating on the basis of ensuring power supply; as well as harmonizing the interests of investors and power users. In addition, mechanisms for gas-fired power projects should be established, ensuring the effectiveness of the project and attracting investment capital. At the same time, it is necessary to build dock warehouses of imported LNG synchronously with gas-fired power plants, supply fuel to power plants using LNG as planned and supplement the gas for the declining domestic source.
In parallel with the import of LNG, Vietnam also needs to stabilize the domestic gas sources being mined such as Nam Con Son, PM3 – Ca Mau, and deploy the projects of Block B, Ca Voi Xanh at the same time on schedule, ensure fuel gas for power generation.
Expected output of gas supply in coming time (Unit: Billion m3/year)
|
Year
|
Mining catches
|
Importing and Distributing LNG
|
|
2021 - 2025
|
13- 19
|
1- 4
|
|
2026 - 2035
|
17 - 21
|
6 – 10
|
Development of gas-fired thermal power under adjusted Power Master Plan VII
|
Year
|
Capacity
|
Output
|
|
|
MW
|
Source proportion in power system (%)
|
BillionkWh
|
Proportion of total output of the system (%)
|
|
2020
|
8,940
|
14.9
|
44
|
16.6
|
|
2030
|
19,036
|
14.7
|
96
|
16.8
|