According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, El Niño is predicted to continue and gradually strengthen, with a 63% probability of a very strong El Niño occurring between November 2026 and January 2027. Hot weather in Southern Vietnam may begin in early March 2027. The number of hot days in the first half of 2027 is likely to be higher than the multi-year average and the same period in 2026.

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Along with weather patterns, power demand in Ho Chi Minh City continues to increase in line with socio-economic development. According to EVNHCMC, the city's peak load capacity is projected to increase by an average of approximately 5.4% per year during the 2022-2026 period. In 2026 alone, the peak capacity is expected to reach 9,668MW, a 6.06% increase compared to that in 2025.

Based on that, EVNHCMC has developed two load scenarios for the 2027 dry season. According to the baseline scenario, the peak power is expected to reach 10,296MW, an increase of 6.5% compared to that in 2026. In the high-growth scenario, the peak power could reach 10,743MW, an increase of 11.11%.

To proactively meet power demand, EVNHCMC has been focusing on accelerating the progress of power grid construction investment projects, strengthening coordination among units during project implementation, especially those projects that play a role in supplementing transmission capacity, relieving power congestion, or increasing the flexibility of the power grid before the peak season.

The Ho Chi Minh City Power System Dispatch Center is tasked with regularly reviewing the allocation of available power capacity from the National Power System Operation and Market Company (NSMO) monthly to propose operating methods suitable to the actual situation and ensure the accuracy of load forecasting; organizing work with the Southern Power System Dispatch Center on optimizing the operation of the 110kV – 220kV power grid in Ho Chi Minh City to ensure stable and continuous power supply; and strengthening coordination with the relevant units in encouraging customers to participate in the Demand-Side Management (DSM) program, saving power, and mobilizing diesel generators when there is a power/output shortage if necessary.

Translator: Nguyễn Thị Lan Anh